2026 Could Be a Breakthrough Year for Shopify Stock: Here’s Why

If a stock has delivered some eye-popping returns in recent years, it doesn’t necessarily mean the best days are already behind it. In some cases, strong past performance is simply a sign that the business is getting bigger, sharper, and more disciplined with every passing year. Shopify (TSX:SHOP) stock fits that description well.

The company has already proven it can scale globally, adapt when fundamentals change, and come out stronger on the other side. With momentum building across commerce and artificial intelligence (AI), the next phase for this Canadian e-commerce platform giant could be even brighter. In this article, I’ll talk about why Shopify stock could be entering a defining phase in 2026 and what is driving that optimism.

Why Shopify stock continues to attract investors

Unlike a few years ago, Shopify today is no longer just a platform for small businesses launching online stores. It has evolved into a comprehensive, global commerce operating system that powers both digital and physical retail for businesses of all sizes – from solo entrepreneurs to Fortune 500 companies.

As of December 23, Shopify’s TSX-listed stock is trading at $232.12 per share, giving it a market cap of about $302.1 billion. Its recent performance explains why it remains one of the best Canadian tech stocks to hold for the long term. Notably, SHOP stock has jumped nearly 84% over the last eight months. Over a longer window, its gains become even more striking, with the stock rising more than 400% over the last three years. These solid returns clearly reflect investors’ confidence in the company’s consistent execution and future outlook.

Strong growth paired with improving efficiency

In the third quarter of 2025, Shopify’s total revenue climbed 32% YoY (year-over-year) to US$2.8 billion. This growth was mainly driven by the strong performance of its subscription solutions and merchant solutions, showing that more businesses are not only joining the Shopify platform but also using more of its tools.

On the profitability side, the company’s adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) reached US$470 million in the latest quarter, rising roughly 16% YoY. While its margins eased a bit compared with a year ago, it still delivered a strong adjusted EBITDA margin of about 16.5%, backed by disciplined spending and scale benefits.

At the same time, Shopify’s free cash flow margin stood at 18%, marking the ninth straight quarter of double-digit free cash flow. That consistency matters, as it shows the tech firm can grow while generating meaningful cash.

Product innovation sets the stage for 2026

What could truly make 2026 a breakout year for Shopify stock is how it’s preparing for future growth. Interestingly, the company rolled out its Winter 26 Edition in late 2025, introducing more than 150 product updates focused heavily on AI. New tools like Sidekick are evolving fast, helping merchants plan, automate, and execute tasks faster. This directly supports merchant productivity and the Shopify platform’s stickiness.

Recently, the Canadian e-commerce platform company also introduced Agentic Storefronts, which allow products to appear directly in AI-driven shopping conversations on platforms like ChatGPT and Microsoft Copilot. More importantly, its merchants still retain control over branding, checkout, and customer relationships. This places Shopify at the center of the future of commerce in AI-powered environments.

Beyond these initiatives, Shopify expects its fourth-quarter revenue growth to remain in the mid to high twenties on a YoY basis, with free cash flow margins improving further. That combination of scale, innovation, and profitability explains why Shopify stock could be entering a defining phase as 2026 approaches.

The post 2026 Could Be a Breakthrough Year for Shopify Stock: Here’s Why appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada.

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More reading

• 1 Canadian Stock to Buy and Hold Forever in a TFSA
• 2 Stocks to Help Turn $100,000 into $1 Million
• 2 Growth Stocks That Could Skyrocket in 2026 and Beyond
• The Best Stocks to Invest $2,000 in a TFSA Right Now
• The 3 Most Popular Stocks on the TSX Today: Do You Own Them?

Fool contributor Jitendra Parashar has positions in Microsoft and Shopify. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Shopify. The Motley Fool recommends Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.