3 Canadian Stocks to Buy If the TSX Pulls Back 10%

The best investing opportunities often show up when fear hits the entire market at once, even the companies that are still growing, still profitable, and still gaining share. If you already have a few high-quality investment ideas on your watch list, a market correction can turn “buy someday” into “maybe now,” without needing perfect timing.

Here are three essential Canadian stocks to keep a close eye on as market volatility picks up in early March.

Shopify

For Canadian investors, “essential” does not always mean just grocery or utility stocks. Sometimes it’s software stocks, too. Shopify (TSX:SHOP) sits in that bucket because it keeps commerce running, powering millions of merchants around the world.

Even as some investors have worried about the threat of new artificial intelligence (AI)-driven shopping tools, Shopify has kept posting strong growth, signing on bigger merchants, and becoming a more entrenched player in payment adoption.

In its most recent report, Shopify delivered revenue of US$3.67 billion, up 31% year over year, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.48. Gross merchandise volume climbed 31%, to US$123.8 billion, and the company announced a US$2 billion share buyback. Management also guided for first-quarter 2026 revenue growth in the low-thirties percentage range, which suggests momentum staying strong into 2026.

The stock’s valuation still looks pricey, though, so the risk here is that if growth slows, the stock can fall harder than the TSX.

OpenText

“Essential” also means the systems that keep large companies running, especially when budgets tighten and executives want one platform instead of 10. OpenText (TSX:OTEX) sells information management software and cloud services, with a big installed base and sticky contracts. Over the last year, it focused on integrating past deals, growing cloud revenue, and improving cash flow discipline while customers push for more efficiency and better security.

In fiscal Q2 2026, it reported total revenue of about US$1.33 billion, with cloud services and subscriptions revenue of US$478 million. It produced adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of US$491 million, which translated into a 37% margin, and it generated US$279 million of free cash flow for the quarter. Non-generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) EPS came in at US$1.13 for the quarter, which helped reinforce the “cash flow first” story.

The Canadian stock looks far cheaper than most of its software peers, at roughly 14 times trailing earnings and about 9 times forward earnings. The main risk is slower organic growth, because even great cash flow can feel less exciting if revenue stays flat.

Kinaxis

Finally, “essential” can also refer to the software that prevents supply chains from turning into chaos. Kinaxis (TSX:KXS) sells subscription-based planning tools that help large companies forecast demand, manage inventory, and respond fast when disruptions hit. Over the last year, it leaned harder into AI features and new product launches aimed at making its platform more automated.

In Q3 2025, Kinaxis reported total revenue of US$134.6 million, up 11% year over year, while SaaS revenue grew 17% to US$92 million. It also delivered adjusted EBITDA of US$33.9 million, up 13%, with a 25% margin, which shows it can grow while staying disciplined. On valuation, it trades around 74 times trailing earnings, with a forward near 31, so the market still treats it as a premium growth name. That premium can work against it in a correction, so the risk is that deal timing or renewal growth dips even briefly, causing investors to punish the multiple.

Bottom line

If the TSX pulls back 10%, please don’t go and panic-buy everything. Keep your cool and focus on quality, earnings power, and staying power. And remember what you’re getting into: Shopify brings scale and fast growth, but it demands patience with valuation. OpenText brings cash flow and a cheaper multiple, but it needs steady execution to keep confidence rising. Kinaxis brings a strong niche and improving profitability, but it can swing more than the market when sentiment turns.

If you’re comfortable with those risks and ready to put some cash to work in a down market, these three look like excellent contenders.

The post 3 Canadian Stocks to Buy If the TSX Pulls Back 10% appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada.

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More reading

• Is It Finally Time to Sell Shopify?
• 3 Top TSX Picks With 20% Upside or More in 2026, According to Experts
• 3 TSX Stocks to Buy for Magnificent Long-Term Growth
• Tailwinds Are Coming: Buy These Stocks Before They Get Here
• Where I’d Invest $5,000 in the TSX in 2026

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Shopify. The Motley Fool recommends Kinaxis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.