Adani Energy: Should You Buy Amid Strong Growth Visibility and Robust Order Book?

Synopsis: Adani Group stock is in focus after Jefferies raised its target price by 42%, highlighting strong earnings visibility, a large order book, and expanding projects. With solid financials, increasing capitalization, regulatory improvements, and smart metering growth.

The shares of the Adani Group company specializing in power transmission, distribution, smart metering, and district cooling solutions, acting as India’s largest private sector transmission company, are in focus following the target by the Global Brokerage firm Jefferies.

With a market capitalization of Rs. 1,72,342.01 Crores on the Day’s Trade, the shares of Adani Energy Solutions Ltd rose by 1.8 percent, reaching a high of Rs. 1,463.00 compared to its previous close of Rs. 1,436.70.

What Happened

Jefferies, the global brokerage firm, has maintained its “Buy” rating on the stock and raised the target price by 42% to Rs 1,665 from Rs 1,170. This represents a 16 upside potential from the day’s low price of Rs. 1,436.70.

Reason for the Target

• Strong Earnings Visibility: Jefferies projects a visible EBITDA CAGR of over 20%, showing consistent long-term profitability. Even with near-term execution delays, the company’s growth trajectory remains robust, providing investors with confidence in sustained returns over FY26–FY28.
• Large Order Book: The order book stands at 2.8 times FY26 regulated asset base (~Rs 540 billion under execution). This ensures steady revenue streams from ongoing transmission and smart metering projects, reducing risk from revenue volatility.
• Capitalization Growth: Management targets Rs 15,300 crore capitalization in FY26, increasing to Rs 20,000–22,000 crore by FY27. This expansion supports scaling operations and strengthens financial stability, making the company attractive for long-term investors.
• Robust Project Pipeline: Key projects include interstate and intrastate transmission and smart metering rollouts. A steady increase in operational projects across multiple states enhances future revenue potential and improves operational efficiency.
• Regulatory & Legal Improvements: Positive updates on proceedings before the Competition Commission of India (CCI) reduce regulatory risk. An improving legal and regulatory environment adds confidence in smoother business operations and reduced compliance uncertainty.
• Attractive Valuation: Valued at 20x FY28 EV/EBITDA, the stock trades below its long-term average multiple. This discount, combined with strong growth drivers, makes it a compelling buy from a risk-reward perspective.

Financials & Others

The company’s revenue rose by 16.76 percent from Rs. 6,375 crore in March 2024 to Rs. 7,443 crore in March 2025. Meanwhile, the Net profit rose from  Rs. 714 crore to  Rs. 723 crore during the same period.

The company demonstrates solid financial performance, with a Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of 9.71% and a Return on Equity (ROE) of 9.61%, indicating efficient use of capital and stable profitability.

Additionally, promoter confidence is reflected in a 1.54% increase in their shareholding over the last quarter, while the company has maintained a robust long-term growth trajectory, achieving a median sales growth of 28% over the past decade.

In its transmission business, the company successfully commissioned the Mumbai HVDC project, adding 1,000 MW to the grid, enhancing capacity, resilience, and supporting the city’s long-term climate goals. Additionally, AESL secured the South Kalamb S/s – Part A project, contributing 47 ckm to the network and taking the total transmission length to 27,949 ckm with an annual tariff of Rs 120 crore.

In distribution, AEML Mumbai recorded a 4% increase in total units sold, reaching 2,508 MUs in Q4 FY26 compared to 2,413 MUs in the previous year. The Regulatory Asset Base (RAB) grew 10% YoY, standing at Rs 10,521 crore as of FY26, reflecting steady expansion in its Mumbai operations.

The smart metering segment marked a significant milestone, surpassing 1 crore cumulative installations in Q4 FY26. With an order book of 2.46 crore meters and revenue potential of Rs 29,519 crore, the company continues to capture growth opportunities, while the untapped national market for smart meters remains substantial at 103 million units.

Adani Energy Solutions Ltd is part of the Adani Group, one of India’s leading conglomerates with interests spanning energy, infrastructure, logistics, and more. The company primarily focuses on providing integrated energy solutions, including renewable energy projects, power management, and energy infrastructure development. It aims to support India’s transition toward sustainable and reliable energy systems.

The company specializes in solar and wind energy projects, energy storage solutions, and energy distribution systems. By combining advanced technology with large-scale project execution capabilities, Adani Energy Solutions plays a key role in helping businesses and communities reduce carbon footprints while ensuring energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

Through strategic investments and partnerships, Adani Energy Solutions continues to expand its footprint in the renewable energy sector, contributing to India’s ambitious clean energy targets. The company’s focus on innovation, sustainability, and large-scale energy infrastructure positions it as a significant player in India’s growing energy market.

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