PSU stock with capex plan of ₹1.17 Lakh Cr and revenue growth guidance of over ₹37,000 Cr

SYNOPSIS:
NLC India plans Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex to rapidly expand mining, thermal, and renewable capacities by 2030, aiming to more than double operational scale and strengthen its long-term growth outlook.

NLC India Limited, a distinguished Navratna enterprise of the Government of India, is engaged in the business of mining lignite, coal and the generation of power by using lignite as well as renewable energy sources and consultancy – making it a company worth tracking closely.

With a market cap of Rs. 33,695 crores, shares of NLC India Limited declined around 2 percent to Rs. 243 on Friday as against its previous closing of Rs. 248.05 on BSE. 

Management Guidance

The company’s revenue from operations is projected to more than double from Rs. 15,283 crore in FY25 to Rs. 24,430 crore by FY26 and Rs. 37,713 crore by FY30. Profit after tax is also expected to grow consistently, increasing from Rs. 2,714 crore in FY25 to Rs. 3,482 crore by FY26 and Rs. 5,294 crore in FY30. The company’s asset base is set to expand significantly – from Rs. 57,851 crore in FY25 to Rs. 76,130 crore by FY26 and Rs. 1,59,747 crore in FY30.

Operational efficiency improves meaningfully over this period, with EBITDA margins increasing from 38.6 percent in FY25 to 41.9 percent in FY26, and reaching 50.6 percent in FY30. Total income is expected to grow from Rs. 18,160 crore in FY25 to Rs. 25,863 crore in FY26, and further to Rs. 39,789 crore by FY30, while EBITDA expands from Rs. 6,841 crore in FY25 to Rs. 10,841 crore in FY26, before reaching Rs. 20,449 crore in FY30.

Further, NLCIL’s outlook from 2025 to 2030 reflects a significant expansion across mining, thermal power, and renewable energy. On the mining front, the company plans to scale its capacity from 50.1 MTPA to 104.35 MTPA, with lignite production rising from 30.1 MTPA to 41.35 MTPA, coal output increasing from 20 MTPA to 62 MTPA, and an additional 1 MTPA coming from critical minerals. 

In the thermal power segment, NLCIL aims to grow its installed capacity from the current 5,960 MW – comprising 3,640 MW under NLCIL and 2,320 MW through joint ventures – to 10,020 MW, with NLCIL’s share increasing to 7,040 MW and JV capacity to 2,980 MW.

The company also has an ambitious renewable energy roadmap, targeting an increase from 1,599 MW at present – primarily 1,548 MW of solar and 51 MW of wind – to 10,110 MW by 2030, including 9,609 MW of solar and 501 MW of wind.

Capex Plans

NLCIL has outlined an extensive five-year capex plan of Rs. 1.17 lakh crore, aimed at accelerating growth across mining, thermal power, renewable energy, and diversification initiatives by 2030. 

In the mining segment, the company plans a total capex of Rs. 14,199 crore, covering ongoing projects, upcoming expansions of 44.25 MTPA, and a 1 MTPA critical minerals project, taking total mining capacity to 104.35 MTPA. 

In the thermal power portfolio, NLCIL has earmarked Rs. 49,981 crore, including ongoing 660 MW projects and upcoming additions of 3,400 MW, expanding total thermal capacity to 10,020 MW.

The most significant push is toward green energy, where the company plans to invest Rs. 41,599 crore to scale renewable capacity to 10,110 MW, with allocations for pumped hydro projects.

Alongside core operations, NLCIL is pursuing diversification projects with a planned capex of Rs. 11,101 crore. These include converting Overburden (OB) to sand, lignite-to-coal gasification, establishing EV charging stations, and other emerging business opportunities.

Financial Performance

In Q2 FY26, NLC India reported a consolidated revenue from operations of Rs. 4,178 crores, a significant growth of more than 9 percent QoQ and 14 percent YoY. Meanwhile, its net profit for the quarter stood at Rs. 725 crores, representing a decline of nearly 14 percent QoQ and 26 percent YoY, over the same period.

In terms of financial ratios, NLC India has a RoE of 14.5 percent and ROCE of 10.5 percent, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.22. Further, the stock is currently trading at a lower P/E of 12.8, compared to the industry average of 27.2.

Written by Shivani Singh

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