Rothera Files Soccer Contracts as Robinhood-Backed Prediction Market Exchange Nears Launch

Rothera is starting to look less like a future Robinhood prediction market project and more like an exchange preparing to list its first contracts.

The CFTC-regulated exchange backed by Robinhood and Susquehanna filed four soccer event contract certifications Wednesday, adding soccer outcome, spread, total goals and achievement contracts to its regulatory page. The filings say the contracts may be listed on or after June 1, placing them just ahead of the 2026 World Cup and matching a Rothera launch timeline that shows a May launch followed by expanded contract offerings in June.

Robinhood executives had already pointed investors toward a near-term Rothera launch. During the company’s most recent quarterly earnings report and investor call, Robinhood said Rothera was expected to launch in the second quarter, while a timeline shown on Rothera’s site lists May 2026 as the initial launch period for markets for Core PCE Price Index, U.S. weekly jobless claims and professional baseball game winner contracts. Those contracts were self-certified earlier this month. The same timeline lists June 2026 for “expanded listings.”

The new soccer filings suggest that expansion could include World Cup markets. Robinhood’s current prediction market soccer page lists categories including EPL, UCL, CONCACAF Champions Cup, Ligue 1, MLS, season outcomes and awards, but it does not currently list World Cup markets.

For now, Robinhood’s event contracts still run through outside exchange partners Kalshi and ForecastEx. As of Thursday, all markets available on Robinhood remained under that existing framework, including baseball and soccer contracts that still come from Kalshi. 

Rothera gives Robinhood and Susquehanna their own exchange and clearing infrastructure, potentially shifting Robinhood’s event contract business away from reliance on third-party venues for contracts.

Rothera filings show a soccer menu taking shape

Rothera’s new soccer filings show the exchange preparing a fuller sports menu than a single match-winner product.

The four templates cover soccer outcomes, spreads, total goals and achievement markets. The achievement contract is the most flexible of the group, giving Rothera room to list markets tied to player, team or competition milestones. The total goals filing also appears built for more than one narrow match format, with language that could apply to individual matches, parts of matches, multiple matches or a tournament-level event.

That structure gives Rothera the basic contract architecture for soccer trading before specific markets go live. A World Cup launch would likely require more than championship-winner contracts, especially if Robinhood wants a product slate closer to what sports traders are used to seeing elsewhere.

Rothera filings show access model and fee setup

Rothera’s regulatory filings show how the exchange is being built to fit into Robinhood’s prediction market business, while also leaving room for other futures commission merchants (FCM) to connect to the exchange.

A May fee schedule update says customers would interact with Rothera “exclusively through an FCM Participant.” In other words, Rothera would list and clear the contracts as the designated contract market (DCM), while an FCM would handle customer access to the exchange. Robinhood Derivatives already plays that intermediary role in Robinhood’s current Kalshi setup, where Robinhood users access contracts listed by the outside exchange.

Rothera’s rulebook appears to leave the model open to more than one FCM. It lays out general requirements for FCM Participants, including CFTC and NFA registration, operational capabilities, customer-fund segregation, collateral accounts and customer order handling obligations. That means Rothera is not limited to Robinhood distribution, even though Robinhood is the clearest initial channel.

Rothera’s fee schedule also gives an early look at trading costs. The exchange uses a variable formula rather than a flat per-contract charge, with fees changing based on contract price and order size. For retail customers trading through an FCM, the posted formula would generate a $0.50 exchange fee on a 100-contract order priced at $0.50 cents per contract.

That would mark a different fee structure from the one Robinhood currently describes to event contract traders. Robinhood says it charges $0.01 per contract and that exchanges typically charge another $0.01 cent per contract, with both fees applying when users open and close positions.

Rothera and Railbird move toward World Cup launch window

Rothera’s soccer filings put Robinhood on a similar track to DraftKings, which is also preparing to bring more prediction market trading onto an affiliated exchange ahead of the next major global sports event.

DraftKings acquired Railbird in October, giving it a CFTC-registered DCM as DraftKings Predictions continued offering event contracts through outside venues, including Crypto.com and CME Group. Robinhood and Susquehanna took a similar infrastructure step by acquiring MIAXdx, the former LedgerX exchange and clearinghouse that has since been renamed Rothera.

Now both exchanges are moving from acquisition strategy to launch preparation. Railbird filed its first sports event contracts earlier this week, including soccer markets, and said those contracts would be initially listed after close of business May 27. Rothera followed with four soccer contract templates that may be listed on or after June 1. 

The timing suggests both companies are trying to position affiliated exchange infrastructure ahead of the World Cup, which begins June 11. DraftKings and Robinhood already have live customer-facing prediction market products through third-party exchange partners, but Railbird and Rothera will give them more control over contract design, exchange-level fees and the speed at which they can add new sports markets.

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