Stock to Buy: Brokerage Sees 24% Upside in This Adani Group Stock Amid Middle East Disruptions

Synopsis: This Adani Group stock is marked by Macquarie for an upside of 23.6 percent , supported by strong logistics, marine, and international port growth, with limited exposure to Middle East disruptions.

This article outlines the upside rationale: strong revenue and EBITDA growth were driven by logistics, marine, and international port operations, while limited exposure to Middle East disruptions supports the company’s positive outlook and potential for further upside.

With a market capitalization of Rs 3,31,643 crore, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd’s share currently trades at a level of Rs 1,439.45 per share, up by 1.08 percent from its previous day’s close price. The share of this company has given a return of 98 percent over the last five years.

Brokerage View

Foreign Brokerage Macquarie remains positive on Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, maintaining an “Outperform” rating with a target price of Rs 1,760, implying about 24 percent upside from today’s opening price. However, it noted that every 10 MMT decline in volumes at Mundra Port could lower the company’s annual consolidated EBITDA by roughly 1 percent.

Limited Direct Impact from Haifa Operations: Haifa Port contributes only about 2 percent of the company’s overall cargo volumes, though it accounts for nearly 25 percent of its international throughput. This indicates that while geopolitical tensions in the region could create short-term uncertainties, the overall operational exposure remains relatively limited.

Gradual Reduction in Haifa Dependence: The contribution of Haifa to total cargo volumes is expected to decline over time, particularly after the consolidation of the NQXT terminal. As the company continues to diversify its port network, reliance on Haifa is likely to reduce, lowering long-term geopolitical and operational risks.

Partial Exposure to Middle East Trade: Around 40 percent of the company’s cargo volumes are domestic, and nearly 15 percent of these are linked to trade with the Middle East. This suggests that only a small portion of overall volumes is exposed to regional disruptions, although temporary pressure on March cargo volumes could arise due to ongoing tensions.

Business highlights:

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone reported a strong Q3 FY26 performance, with revenue rising 22 percent YoY and EBITDA increasing 20 percent YoY to Rs 5,786 crore. The company also raised its FY26 EBITDA guidance by Rs  800 crore, reflecting improved operational momentum and strong cargo demand.

Growth was supported by its logistics and marine segments, where asset-light services drove logistics revenue up 62 percent YoY to Rs 1,121 crore. Marine revenue surged 91 percent YoY to Rs 773 crore, while international ports revenue crossed Rs 1,000 crore for the first time, highlighting expanding global operations.

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone is in the business of development, operations, and maintenance of port infrastructure (port services and related infrastructure development) and has linked a multi-product Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and related infrastructure contiguous to the Port at Mundra.

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