TVS Motor Q4 Results: How Is India’s Leading Two -Wheeler Exporter Expected To Perform? 

Synopsis: TVS Motor is set to announce its Q4FY26 results on May 13, with brokerages expecting strong volume growth, export recovery, and EV momentum to support performance, while rising raw material costs and margin pressures remain key factors to watch.

TVS Motor Company’s board is scheduled to meet on Wednesday, May 13, to consider and approve the company’s audited consolidated and standalone financial results for Q4FY26 and the full financial year ended March 31, 2026. Here are the estimates from Motilal Oswal and Prabhudas Lilladher. 

What Are The Expectations?

According to Motilal Oswal and Prabhudas Lilladher, TVS Motor is expected to maintain strong growth momentum in Q4FY26, supported by healthy volume expansion across motorcycles, scooters, three-wheelers, and electric vehicles. The company continues to benefit from consistent market share gains across domestic and export markets, with balanced demand across urban and rural regions. 

Brokerages highlight that TVS’s strong execution and better product mix are expected to support revenue growth. Motilal Oswal notes that TVS delivered a 120bps YoY EBITDA margin expansion to 13.1 percent in 3QFY26. However, looking ahead, Prabhudas Lilladher cautions that while improving scale and PLI benefits are positives, they are expected to be offset by rising raw material costs, resulting in a YoY EBITDA margin decline in 4QFY26. Higher precious metal costs and supply chain constraints add further near-term margin pressure.

Beyond near-term operational strength, TVS’s broader outlook remains supported by strong export recovery, particularly across Africa, Latin America, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, where demand trends continue to improve. The company also remains optimistic about sustaining industry outperformance in the coming quarters, supported by improved product mix and deeper EV penetration, with upcoming product launches remaining a key factor to watch. 

Its electric vehicle business has already achieved gross margin positivity, with EBITDA breakeven expected as volumes continue to scale. Brokerages also note that growing exports contribution, weaker rupee benefits, PLI incentives, and long-term investments across subsidiaries and financial services businesses are expected to further strengthen profitability and strategic positioning.

While margin expansion may remain partially constrained by raw material inflation and supply-side challenges, both brokerages remain constructive on TVS Motor’s medium-term outlook due to its strong market share gains, diversified growth drivers, and consistent operational execution. The company’s ability to outperform industry growth, expand across international markets, and strengthen its EV ecosystem is expected to support sustained earnings growth over the long term. Key factors to monitor remain commodity cost inflation, supply chain stability, and the outcome of upcoming product launches.

What Are The Estimates?

Motilal Oswal expects TVS Motor Company to report revenue of Rs. 12,067.1 crore in Q4FY26, reflecting a decline of 3.3 percent quarter-on-quarter from Rs. 12,476.3 crore in Q3FY26, while rising strongly by 26.3 percent year-on-year from Rs. 9,550.4 crore reported in Q4FY25.

EBITDA is estimated at Rs. 1,559.4 crore, which would represent a decline of 4.6 percent sequentially from Rs. 1,634.1 crore in Q3FY26, while increasing by 17 percent year-on-year from Rs. 1,332.6 crore in Q4FY25. EBITDA margins are projected at 12.92 percent.

Net profit is expected to come in at Rs. 979.2 crore, increasing by 4.1 percent quarter-on-quarter from Rs. 940.4 crore in Q3FY26, but declining by 3.4 percent year-on-year from Rs. 1,013.9 crore in Q4FY25. PAT margins are estimated at 8.11 percent.

Prabhudas Lilladher projects TVS Motor’s revenue at Rs. 12,955.2 crore for Q4FY26, indicating an increase of 3.8 percent quarter-on-quarter from Rs. 12,476.3 crore in Q3FY26 and a strong rise of 35.7 percent year-on-year compared to Rs. 9,550.4 crore in Q4FY25.

EBITDA is estimated at Rs. 1,663.8 crore, implying a growth of 1.8 percent sequentially from Rs. 1,634.1 crore in Q3FY26 and a 24.9 percent increase year-on-year from Rs. 1,332.6 crore in Q4FY25. EBITDA margins are expected at 12.84 percent.

Net profit is projected at Rs. 1,042.5 crore, reflecting an increase of 10.9 percent quarter-on-quarter from Rs. 940.4 crore in Q3FY26 and a marginal growth of 2.8 percent year-on-year from Rs. 1,013.9 crore in Q4FY25. PAT margins are estimated at 8.04 percent.

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