Will Gold Hit ₹2 Lakh per 10 Grams Anytime Soon? Here’s What JP Morgan Has to Say

Synopsis: A global investment bank is sticking with a bullish gold forecast even as the metal has gone nowhere this year. A potential Iran peace deal and long-term structural forces could be the triggers.

Gold has had a forgettable first half of 2026. After one of its best years on record in 2025, when it gained 65%, the metal has spent most of this year drifting sideways and is barely changed from where it began January. That flat performance has cooled investor enthusiasm considerably. JP Morgan Global Research, however, has not changed its view – the bank is projecting gold at $6,000 per ounce by the end of this year, rising to $6,300 per ounce by end-2027.

For Indian buyers, these numbers carry real weight. At the current exchange rate of ₹95 per dollar, and after factoring in India’s 6% Basic Customs Duty, 1% Agriculture Infrastructure Development Cess, and 3% GST, gold futures are currently trading around ₹1,52,000 per 10 grams domestically. 

A move to $6,000 per ounce would translate to about ₹1,83,000 lakh per 10 grams at the raw international price – but with import duties and GST applied, the landed cost for Indian buyers rises to roughly ₹2,02,000 lakh per 10 grams. The $6,300 target for 2027 implies nearly ₹2,12,000 per 10 grams, before dealer margins and making charges are added. From current levels, that is a potential gain of close to 40%.

What has held gold back

The story of gold in 2026 is largely the story of the Iran conflict. When hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran escalated and the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, it sent oil prices surging. That, in turn, stoked inflation fears and shifted market expectations toward interest rates staying higher for longer. Gold, which pays no yield, tends to suffer in that kind of environment – and it did.

Greg Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals at JP Morgan, described the metal’s current technical position as sitting between its 200-day moving average near $4,340 per ounce and its 50-day moving average at $4,730 per ounce, without a clear direction. Most investors, he noted, have moved gold to the back burner for now.

The case for a second-half rally

JP Morgan’s optimism hinges on a combination of near-term and longer-term factors. On the immediate side, a US-Iran peace agreement is reportedly set to be signed on June 19. The prospect of that deal has already nudged gold above $4,300 per ounce for three consecutive sessions. A ceasefire would likely ease oil prices and soften the dollar – both of which tend to be supportive for gold. The dollar index has already slipped to around 99.67, and Brent crude has pulled back below $83 a barrel.

Over the longer term, the bank’s thesis rests on factors that have been building for years – concerns about US fiscal deficits, the risk of sustained inflation eroding purchasing power, persistent central bank gold demand, and growing unpredictability in global policy. These are not short-term noise; they are structural arguments for holding gold.

A word of caution

Not everyone is rushing in. Michele Schneider of MarketGauge advised investors to wait for a clear technical breakout before adding positions, rather than trying to call a bottom. JP Morgan itself acknowledges that uncertainty could persist through the rest of the year, with the bigger move expected only in the second half.

For Indian investors tracking gold, the math is straightforward – if the bank’s call proves right, today’s ₹15,200 per gram could look like a reasonable entry point in hindsight. Whether that plays out depends heavily on what happens in Switzerland on June 19.

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