1 Canadian Energy Stock Positioning for a Big 2026

Canadian natural gas is back on investors’ radar.

This came as Canada’s natural gas industry averaged a record 19 billion cubic feet per day production level in 2025, according to the Canada Energy Regulator. Production also reached a monthly record of 20 billion cubic feet per day in November, helped by sustained drilling, better recovery, and the start of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from LNG Canada.

Not all talk

Yet it’s the export piece that deserves the most attention. For years, Canadian natural gas producers depended heavily on North American prices. When Western Canadian gas prices weakened, even strong producers could see cash flow squeezed. LNG changes the setup as it gives Canadian gas a route to global markets.

The Canada Energy Regulator says future natural gas production growth depends heavily on LNG. In its 2026 outlook, the regulator projected Canadian natural gas production growing across all scenarios, with most incremental production going to LNG exports.

Canada is no longer just talking about LNG. LNG Canada Phase 1 entered production in the summer of 2025, with its first shipment exported to Asian markets in June 2025. The federal Major Projects Office also says LNG Canada and Coastal GasLink announced a cooperation agreement in March 2026 to support a pipeline expansion that could enable Phase 2.

That does not make every gas stock a buy. Investors still need companies with scale, low costs, strong assets, and enough financial strength to handle weaker pricing. Tourmaline Oil (TSX:TOU) looks built for that kind of market.

TOU

Tourmaline is Canada’s largest natural gas producer, with operations in the Alberta Deep Basin, the Northeast British Columbia Montney, and the Peace River High. The company gives investors direct exposure to Canadian gas, natural gas liquids, and the long-term LNG opportunity.

Recently, Tourmaline said the first two major facility projects in its Northeast British Columbia infrastructure buildout remain on schedule. The Aitken expansion should start up in the fourth quarter of 2026, while the Groundbirch deep cut plant should follow in the fourth quarter of 2027.

Montney has become one of the key regions for Western Canadian natural gas growth. The Canada Energy Regulator says much of the country’s future natural gas production growth centres on Northeast British Columbia and Northwest Alberta. In other words, Tourmaline stock owns assets in the right place at the right time.

Looking ahead

The financial picture also supports the case. Tourmaline generated $862.2 million in cash flow in the first quarter of 2026 and raised its free-cash-flow outlook for 2026 and 2027 to about $900 million each year, helped by condensate, propane, and international LNG pricing.

For income investors, Tourmaline also pays a dividend. The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.50 per share in June 2026, with a yield at 3.4% at writing while trading at 33 times earnings.

The main risk is commodity pricing. Tourmaline itself said it could defer another $200 million of drilling and completion capital from its 2026 program if Western North American natural gas prices stay weak. Investors should take that seriously. Natural gas stocks can look attractive when LNG demand rises, then pull back hard when spot prices drop.

Foolish takeaway

Still, the setup for 2026 looks stronger than a simple gas-price bet. Canada is producing record amounts of natural gas. LNG exports are moving from promise to reality. Tourmaline has scale, infrastructure projects, LNG-linked exposure, and financial flexibility if prices stay uneven.

For long-term investors looking for one Canadian energy stock tied to the next stage of Canada’s LNG story, Tourmaline stock deserves a place on the watch list before the opportunity becomes more obvious.

The post 1 Canadian Energy Stock Positioning for a Big 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada.

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More reading

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• 1 Energy Stock Aiming Quietly Aiming for its Biggest Year Yet

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Tourmaline Oil. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.