1 Excellent TSX Dividend Stock, Down 33%, to Buy and Hold for the Long Term

A dividend stock that drops can feel like a bad date that texts you back months later. You want to ignore it, but you also wonder if you judged too quickly. The smartest “down” dividend buys share a simple mix of a real business that keeps serving customers, a balance sheet that can handle a rough patch, and a payout that does not rely on perfection. When you find that combination, the falling share price becomes an entry point instead of a warning sign.

WFG

West Fraser Timber (TSX:WFG) lives in a non-obvious sector for multi-year winners. It does not sell apps or luxury brands. It sells the building blocks of housing. The dividend stock produces lumber and engineered wood products such as oriented strand board, plus pulp and paper products, across more than 50 facilities in Canada, the United States, the U.K., and Europe. Cycles push investors in and out, and that churn can create bargains.

The market has not shown much love lately. The share price sits near $82 at writing, and one-year performance saw around a 30% decline. Higher mortgage rates have kept many buyers on the sidelines, and that pressure leaks into demand for lumber and panels. West Fraser also faces trade friction that can hit margins and sentiment at the same time.

Management spelled out the headwinds in its third-quarter 2025 update. It pointed to supply-and-demand imbalances across wood-based building products while elevated mortgage rates weighed on housing affordability. It also flagged higher duty rates and a new 10% Section 232 tariff on imported softwood timber and lumber into the U.S. that began on October 14, 2025.

Earnings clues

Third quarter 2025 results reflected that ugly backdrop. West Fraser reported sales of US$1.3 billion and a net loss of US$204 million, or US$2.63 per diluted share. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) swung to a loss of US$144 million, and the lumber segment drove most of the weakness. Those numbers explain why the dividend stock looks like a falling knife to short-term investors.

Long-term investors should focus on what West Fraser does when conditions turn harsh. In its latest quarter, it kept returning cash to shareholders. It paid US$0.32 per share in quarterly dividends and declared the same amount for the fourth quarter of 2025. It also repurchased 553,467 shares for about US$40 million during Q3. That combination won’t erase a downturn, but it can compound gains when the cycle turns.

Recent news shows management acting, not wishing. On December 4, 2025, West Fraser announced plans to indefinitely curtail its High Level, Alberta OSB mill in spring 2026, cutting 860 million square feet of capacity, and confirmed continued idling of a Cordele, Georgia OSB line. Those moves can protect margins by matching supply to demand. So next, watch mortgage rates, housing starts, and renovation spending, because those forces drive volumes and pricing for its products.

Bottom line

Risks still matter, including housing softness, sharp price swings, and policy surprises. The dividend stock also expects an impairment tied to the curtailment, which can keep headlines gloomy. Still, for investors who want a dividend today and bigger upside tomorrow, WFG can be a good fit. Right now, here’s what $7,000 could bring in through dividends alone.

COMPANYRECENT PRICENUMBER OF SHARESDIVIDEND TOTAL ANNUALPAYOUTFREQUENCYTOTAL INVESTMENTWFG$82.6184$1.77$148.68Quarterly$6,939.24

If you can hold through a messy year, you give yourself a shot at owning a quality operator right when the cycle looks its worst, and you keep the dividend cheques along the way.

The post 1 Excellent TSX Dividend Stock, Down 33%, to Buy and Hold for the Long Term appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada.

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More reading

• The Best Canadian Dividend Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever in a TFSA

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends West Fraser Timber. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.