2 TSX Stocks That Could Win Big From Oil Near $100

Oil near US$100 can change the mood fast. Investors usually look for producers with direct commodity exposure, room to grow production, and balance sheets that don’t wobble when prices move. The best fits often aren’t the biggest names, but companies with cash flow leverage, disciplined spending, and assets that can turn higher oil prices into stronger funds flow without needing everything to go perfectly.

VET

Vermilion Energy (TSX:VET) looks relevant now because it gives investors oil exposure with a twist. It’s no longer just a conventional Canadian producer, but leans heavily into natural gas in Canada and Europe while still keeping liquids exposure. That mix could help if oil surges, but it also gives the company pricing diversity if global gas markets stay tight.

The last year brought a lot of reshaping. Vermillion stock bought Westbrick Energy to deepen its position in Alberta’s Deep Basin, then moved to exit its U.S. assets and focus on Canada and Europe. It also pushed further into Germany, where European gas pricing can make a big difference. In early 2026, Vermillion stock said first-quarter production averaged about 125,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), above guidance, with 28% liquids exposure.

The numbers support the turnaround story. Vermillion stock generated $1 billion in fund flows from operations (FFO) in 2025 and $375 million in free cash flow. Net debt sat at about $1.3 billion at year-end, so debt still deserves attention. Yet Vermillion stock recently traded with a market cap near $2.8 billion, a 2026 estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 13 times, and an estimated yield around 3%. That’s not dirt cheap, but it still gives investors leverage if oil and gas prices stay hot.

The risk? Vermillion stock carries more moving parts than a plain Canadian oil name. European gas prices, acquisition integration, debt, and commodity swings all matter. But if oil pushes toward US$100, cash flow could climb quickly. That makes Vermilion a stronger fit for investors who want income, upside, and a little global energy torque.

JOY

Journey Energy (TSX:JOY) is a much smaller play, and that’s exactly why it could move more sharply if oil prices spike. The company focuses on oil and natural gas production in Alberta, with a growing Duvernay angle and power assets that add a different layer to the story. Small-cap energy stocks can run hard when crude climbs, but they can also fall hard when prices cool.

The last year gave Journey a cleaner, more interesting setup. It posted 2025 net income of $25.9 million and adjusted funds flow of $71 million. Sales averaged 11,261 boe/d, with liquids making up 61% of volumes. That liquids weight gives Journey the kind of oil-price sensitivity investors want in a US$100 crude scenario. It also cut net debt 16% to $50.6 million, which helps reduce the small-cap stress factor.

The Duvernay remains the big catalyst. Journey’s joint venture wells showed strong early results, and the company expects 2026 Duvernay spending of $50 million to $65 million. Its year-end reserve update also pointed to a record net asset value (NAV) of about $1 billion, or $14.17 per fully diluted share. Against a recent market cap around $356 million and a P/E ratio near 14.7 times, the market still doesn’t seem to price in a perfect outcome.

Still, Journey comes with real risk. It’s smaller, less diversified, and more exposed to execution. Duvernay development needs capital, timing, and strong well results. But if oil nears US$100, investors may start hunting for exactly this type of smaller producer with liquids exposure, reserve upside, and improving debt.

Bottom line

In short, Vermillion stock offers a more established route into higher oil and global gas prices, while Journey offers more small-cap torque. Neither suits cautious investors who hate commodity swings. But for those looking at oil near US$100 and wondering where the upside could show up first, these two names deserve a closer look.

The post 2 TSX Stocks That Could Win Big From Oil Near $100 appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada.

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More reading

• 1 Canadian Energy Stock That May Be Quietly Setting Up for a Strong Year
• 5 TSX Energy Stocks to Buy as Oil Pulls Back on Ceasefire News

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Vermilion Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.