Bitcoin at $87K: BTC Buying Opportunity or Dead Cat Bounce?

With Bitcoin recently soaring to $87,000, headlines across mainstream financial media have lit up with speculation. Analysts and commentators alike are mumbling phrases like “parabolic move,” and “unsustainable highs,” while skeptics warn of a looming collapse or a so-called dead cat bounce. To the average retail investor, it’s a confusing time: should you FOMO in or wait it out? Is this price surge a real upward trend—or just another temporary spike before a sharp correction?

There’s another way to view the situation—one that seasoned investors are quietly considering. This may be one of the most strategic Bitcoin buying opportunities of 2024, even at these seemingly high levels.

Why Fear in the Market Often Signals Opportunity

Historically, markets tend to move counter to public sentiment. When euphoria is at its peak, tops often form. Conversely, when doubt reigns, the foundation for future bull runs is quietly laid. Bitcoin reaching $87K has stirred more fear than enthusiasm—an unusual response at a time when price is rising. While short-term traders fixate on media narratives, savvy investors are analyzing deeper indicators that suggest long-term bullish momentum.

One of the most underappreciated metrics right now is the on-chain activity of long-term holders. Throughout the months of sideways price action between $60,000 and $70,000, a massive amount of Bitcoin quietly moved into cold storage. Data from blockchain analytics firms shows that high-value wallets, often referred to as “whales,” have steadily accumulated during these periods of stagnation. As retail traders jumped between altcoin fads, institutional and high-net-worth investors accumulated silently.

This accumulation supports the theory that the market is undergoing a healthy consolidation before a further breakout. Momentum indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index), MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), and Puell Multiple remain below extreme levels, suggesting that the asset is not as overbought as headlines would have you believe. In other words, there could still be a significant runway ahead.

Is It Just a “Dead Cat Bounce”? Not So Fast

The term “dead cat bounce” is often thrown around during rapid market recoveries. It implies a brief recovery before a resumption of the downturn. However, the current structure of the Bitcoin market tells a different story. For one, BTC has consistently traded above its 200-day moving average, a widely-followed technical indicator that many view as a line dividing bull and bear trends. Sustained price action above this threshold generally indicates a strong uptrend with institutional support.

Moreover, open interest in Bitcoin futures markets has been rising—indicating that more traders are entering the market, rather than exiting. Unlike past speculative frenzies, this wave of demand has a more stable foundation, driven partly by regulated ETF products that give institutions clean exposure to BTC. When asset managers and pension funds begin to allocate even a small portion of their portfolios into Bitcoin, the resulting demand can be exponential.

Looking at the broader macroeconomic backdrop adds another layer of context. U.S. debt continues to rise unabated, with federal deficits ballooning and interest expenses putting strain on future budgets. Geopolitical tensions—ranging from wars to trade conflicts—are creating renewed interest in hard, sovereign-resistant assets. Meanwhile, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near-to-midterm suggest more liquidity could enter risk assets. Each of these macro factors reinforces the case for owning Bitcoin as both a hedge and a growth asset.

Zooming Out: The Post-Halving Cycle Is Just Getting Started

Bitcoin operates on a four-year halving cycle, reducing the issuance of new coins and historically triggering long-term bull markets. The latest halving occurred in April 2024, marking a significant milestone. If history is any guide, the most substantial gains from halving events tend to occur 12 to 18 months afterward. That places the current timeline in the very early stages of what could be a substantial new uptrend.

Popular valuation models like the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) and logarithmic regression models identify potential upside targets for Bitcoin in this cycle between $120,000 and $180,000. While these models are not crystal balls, they have accurately called broad market movements in previous cycles. More importantly, they highlight that $87K may not be the peak—but merely a waypoint on the journey.

Bitcoin’s previous cycle highs were marked by dramatic price discovery above prior resistance levels. Looking deeper into market structure, the $87K level is not a significant psychological ceiling like $100K might be. It’s a high number, yes—but sentiment, not price, defines bubble behavior. Right now, sentiment is still riddled with doubt. And doubt is often where smart money thrives.

Risk Management and Strategic Exposure

To be clear, none of this implies throwing caution to the wind or allocating your entire portfolio into BTC overnight. Strategic investing is not about being reckless; it’s about positioning yourself efficiently. Diversification remains essential—balancing allocations among high-conviction assets, stablecoins, and hedged positions to minimize overall risk while maximizing asymmetric upside potential.

However, dismissing Bitcoin at $87K as “too expensive” ignores the broader picture. Too often, retail investors wait for conclusive confirmation—usually in the form of new all-time highs—before entering. By the time breakout confirmation arrives, the best risk-reward profiles are long gone. In this market, the biggest rewards often come from moving before the crowd, not after.

Whether your investment thesis is based on technical patterns, on-chain analytics, macroeconomic shifts, or historical halving trends, all signs suggest that Bitcoin’s bull market still has plenty of gas left in the tank. Even a modest pullback now could be a setup for a much larger leg upward. Instead of waiting for the ‘perfect’ time to enter, many successful investors focus on building positions progressively and managing downside risk as they go.

How Contrarian Investors Thrive

Contrarian investing doesn’t mean defying logic—it means questioning the dominant narrative. While headlines focus on whether or not $87K is "too high," long-term Bitcoin bulls are watching institutional flows, sovereign interest, and wallet distribution trends. These data points offer a reality far more useful than price alone.

Fear-driven money waits for permission. Smart money acts when discomfort is highest. The most transformative profits are often captured during uncertain times—moments that feel risky but are backed by data and strategic conviction. Missing out on opportunities because of media-driven fear can lead to regret later, especially as assets move into true price discovery mode.

In the ever-evolving crypto market, fortune favors those who act not just fast—but wisely. Identify leading indicators, assess risk, and execute with discipline. Whether you’re new to Bitcoin or an experienced holder, understanding the context around the current move to $87K could be critical in shaping your portfolio’s trajectory for years to come.

This moment—even at $87K—might not be the top. In fact, it could be the most misunderstood buying opportunity of the cycle. The question is: will you recognize it in time?