Can Nifty hit 30,000 levels by March next year?

SYNOPSIS: Markets remain under pressure, but Elara Capital sees a recovery led by earnings growth, projecting the Nifty to reach 30,000 by March 2027 as sectoral participation broadens from FY27.

Markets have remained under pressure for the past few months, and Wednesday’s session was no different, with the Nifty 50 ending the session lower by about 67 points, or 0.26 percent, closing in the red at 25,665.6. 

Over the past five trading sessions, the index has slipped roughly 0.7 percent. That said, the bigger picture remains positive; the Nifty is still up over 10 percent from last one year and nearly 2 percent over the last six months. The benchmark had touched a recent peak of 26,373.2 earlier this month on 5th January 2026.

Brokerage View: Where Can the Nifty Head Next?

Looking ahead, Elara Capital remains constructive on the market’s near-term outlook. The brokerage has initiated a target of 30,000 on the Nifty by March 2027, implying a potential upside of around 17 percent from Wednesday’s closing level of 25,665.6. According to Elara, the market’s next move is likely to be driven more by earnings growth rather than any sharp re-rating in valuations.

After a relatively muted start to FY26, the brokerage expects Nifty earnings to grow at a healthy 14-15 percent CAGR through FY27 and FY28. Its estimates suggest Nifty earnings per share (EPS) could rise from about Rs. 1,096 in FY26 to Rs. 1,281 in FY27 and further to Rs. 1,463 in FY28, translating into earnings growth of roughly 17 percent in FY27 and 14 percent in FY28.

What Could Drive the Earnings Recovery?

Elara believes this earnings revival will be supported by a mix of macro and policy tailwinds. These include expectations of double-digit nominal GDP growth in FY27, a slower pace of fiscal consolidation, along with continued pro-consumption measures, and a supportive interest-rate environment with ample liquidity.

That said, FY26 is still expected to face some pressure points. The brokerage highlighted challenges such as pricing fatigue in consumer staples and healthcare, muted growth for IT services due to global uncertainty, and regulated returns in the utilities segment. As central bank’s rate cuts begin to flow through the system, consumption improves, and operating leverage comes into play, earnings momentum is expected to pick up meaningfully from FY27 onwards.

Earnings Growth Set to Broaden

Another encouraging signal, according to Elara, is the expected broadening of earnings growth across sectors. In FY26, only a handful of sectors, namely consumer discretionary, telecom, energy, and materials, are likely to deliver double-digit profit growth, pointing to a narrow, cyclical recovery.

By FY27, however, the picture could look more balanced. Elara expects seven sectors to post double-digit earnings growth, with industrials (17 percent), consumer staples (11 percent), and financials (11 percent) joining the list. This widening participation, the brokerage notes, would mark a balanced and more sustainable phase of market recovery.

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