Gold Hits All Time High: Check Targets by Societe Generale, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs

Synopsis: Gold futures are trading at Rs. 1,77,625 per 10 grams, up 7% from Rs. 1,65,915. In the overseas market, it reached highs of $5,598.75 per ounce. Strong global demand, inflation, and import costs are driving the rally.

Over the past ten years, it has delivered a remarkable return of 565%. In the last five years, the return was 260%, while over the past year it achieved 121%. In the last six months, it gained 80%, and over the past month, the return was 31%. Even in the most recent five days, it saw an increase of 12%.

Gold, currently trading at $5,580 per ounce in the overseas market, translates to approximately Rs. 165,026 for 10 grams in India at the exchange rate of 92, having reached a high of $5,598.75 per ounce. 

Gold Set for Record Highs

According to reports from Deutsche Bank, gold could hit $6,000 an ounce in 2026. Recently, gold has risen to a record high of $5,500 an ounce due to global economic instability and geopolitical issues, drawing investors into this safe-haven asset. Deutsche Bank also remarked that gold could reach as high as $6,900 an ounce based on other scenarios due to its incredible performance over the last two years.

For higher levels, a price of $6,000 per ounce would correspond to about Rs. 177,496 for 10 grams, while $6,900 per ounce would be around Rs. 204,115 for 10 grams. It’s worth noting that the $6,000 target has effectively already been reached in the Indian market due to currency deviation, and on top of these base prices, applicable GST and cess will further increase the final cost to consumers.

Gold futures are currently trading at Rs. 1,77,625 per 10 grams. After adding a 6% import duty of Rs. 10,657.50, the price rises to Rs. 1,88,282.50. Applying a 3% GST of Rs. 5,648.48 on this amount, the final cost of gold per 10 grams comes to approximately Rs. 1,93,930.

Analyst Outlooks and Bullish Targets

Societe Generale anticipates that gold will be worth $6,000 by the end of this fiscal year, which they feel could be considered a conservative estimate. Morgan Stanley cited a bull-case prediction of $5,700 and continues to see bullish upside risk to its current forecast for $5,400 by December 2026 from Goldman Sachs. Gold is up due mainly to purchases by many central banks, inflows into ETFs and expectations of a decrease in US interest rates.

The price of Gold has been increasing significantly because of international and local factors combined with multiple variables. Factors like ongoing inflationary pressure and declining US dollar value have given Gold a reason to be used as an inflation hedge for many investors. 

With growing global geopolitical tensions plus uncertain economies, the demand for safe-haven assets (which include Gold) has risen dramatically. In India, fluctuations in the value of the rupee versus USD, combined with the rising cost of importing Gold due to increased customs duties, have caused increases in the price of Gold within that country. There is also an expectation on interest rate hikes to be slower than expected and there will continue to be liquidity available in the global financial system which further enhances the upward trend of Gold prices in both International & Domestic markets.

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