Hindustan Copper and NALCO: Is It the Right Time to Buy After Shares Jumped Up To 70% in Last 2 Months?

• Copper & Aluminium Bulls: HCL and NALCO soar 42%+ in the last 2 months
• HCL and NALCO: Touching 50,000 crore marketcap amid metal boom
• PSU Miners at an all-time high: HCL and NALCO hit new peaks

Synopsis: Hindustan Copper rose more than 70% in the last 2 months, whereas NALCO rose more than 42% in the previous 3 months. Both companies crossed the mark of 50,000 crore in market capitalization and touched an all-time high. What role did copper and aluminium cycles play in HCL and NALCO’s stock performance? Can we invest now?

Hindustan Copper rose more than 70% in the last 2 months, whereas NALCO rose more than 42% in the previous 3 months. Both companies crossed the mark of 50,000 crore in market capitalization and touched an all-time high. 

What’s driving the rally?

Hindustan Copper’s sharp rally in 2025 is closely tied to a powerful global bull run in copper, with prices surging over 40% and putting the metal on track for its best year since 2009. Copper has emerged as the top-performing base metal, supported by a rare combination of robust structural demand and tightening supply. The energy transition, including renewables, grid upgrades, and electric vehicles, alongside the rapid build-out of AI-driven data centres, has significantly boosted copper consumption. On the supply side, years of underinvestment and a series of mine disruptions have constrained output, magnifying every demand shock. 

The supply tightness intensified after a deadly landslide at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia in September 2025 triggered a government-ordered shutdown and force majeure, flooding tunnels and curtailing production from one of the world’s largest copper assets. Operations are restarting in phases, but full capacity is unlikely before 2027, underpin strong pricing and sentiment for copper-linked players such as Hindustan Copper.

NALCO’s share price has been rising on the back of a powerful combination of strong fundamental performance and a favourable aluminium cycle, reflected in robust growth in bauxite excavation, alumina, and cast metal volumes, which has translated into higher revenues, lower expenses, and a sharp jump in profitability (with PAT up about 35% in Q2 and over 50% in H1 and nearly 165% in FY25). Volume leverage and efficiency gains have materially lifted earnings, with increased alumina volumes alone adding roughly Rs 700 crore and operational efficiencies contributing about Rs 300 crore in H1, while the company has delivered its highest-ever revenue, PAT, margins, and dividend in its history. 

At the same time, aluminium futures prices in the international market have climbed to around USD 2,950 per tonne, the highest in over three years, up about 18% for the year. It is supported by tightening global supply as China enforces output caps, and smelters in regions such as Indonesia, Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia face high energy costs. Apart from these reasons, regulatory issues and raw material constraints, creating a supportive pricing backdrop that directly benefits producers like NALCO.

Record Financial and Operational Performance in FY25 and H1FY26

• Revenue from Operations: In FY25, the company generated the highest revenue of Rs 2,071 crore, a jump of 20.62% YoY (vs 1,717 crore in FY24). In H1FY26, revenue grew by 19.53% YoY and stood at Rs 1,255.6 crore. 
• EBITDA: In FY25, the company generated EBITDA of Rs 816 crore, which climbed by 35.68% YoY; while EBITDA margin stood at 39.40% (vs 35.03% in FY24). 
• Production: In FY25, it achieved the highest-ever production from the Malanjkhand Mine of 27.25 lakh tonnes of ore. 
• PAT: In FY25, the company generated the highest PAT of Rs 469 crore, a jump of 58.98% YoY; while PAT margin stood at 22.62% (vs 17.21% in FY24). In H1FY26, it stood at Rs 320.3 crore, gaining 48.93% YoY.
• Capex: In FY25, the company incurred capex on account of Mine expansion, Mine development, Replacements & Renewals (R&R) of Plant & Machinery, and Green field Exploration, which stood at Rs 409.89 crore (vs target of Rs 350 crore)
• Dividend: In FY25, the company paid the highest ever dividend of Rs 141 crore. 

NALCO

• Revenue from Operations: In FY25, the company generated the highest ever revenue from operations of Rs 16,788 crore, a rise of 27.48% YoY (vs 13,070 crore in FY24). In H1FY26, revenue grew by 18.10% YoY and stood at Rs 8,099 crore. Export turnover stood at Rs 5,517 crore, up by 29% YoY. Increase in sales is mainly attributable to an increase in the price of Alumina and Aluminium.
• EBITDA: In FY25, the company generated EBITDA of Rs 7,922 crore, which jumped by 153.59% YoY; while for H1FY26, EBITDA grew 41.17% YoY and stood at Rs 3,693 crore.
• Production: The company achieved an all-time high in domestic metal sales of 4,54,600 MT in FY25, surpassing the previous best of 4,38,875 MT achieved in FY23. In H1FY26, the company produced the highest-ever H1 Alumina Hydrate Production & Cast Metal Production. 
• PAT: In FY25, the company generated the highest-ever PAT of Rs 5,325 crore, a jump of 158.50% YoY. In H1FY26, it stood at Rs 2,497 crore, gaining 50.15% YoY.
• Capex: In FY25, the company incurred capex on account of major projects such as the expansion of Bauxite Mines, Alumina Refinery, Aluminium Smelter, and Captive Power Plant, which stood at Rs 1,427.39 crore. 

Strategic Growth Initiatives and Metal Price Tailwinds

Hindustan Copper: The company is effectively recasting itself from a sub-scale PSU miner into a multi‑mine copper franchise targeting 12.2 MTPA of ore production by FY31, with Malanjkhand alone planned to rise from under 3 MTPA to 5 MTPA as shaft equipping, new concentrator capacity, and crushing infrastructure fall into place over the next 30-32 months. 

The MDO‑operated Rakha block (capacity of 3 MTPA), where South West Mining (JSW group) is expected to invest roughly Rs 2,600-2,700 crore over 6-7 years in return for a 12.5% revenue share. Management pegs the total capex requirement at about Rs 2,000 crore over five years to deliver the 12 MTPA vision. It is acquiring new promising copper deposits in India and abroad by taking part in upcoming mineral auctions. It has collaborated with Codelco, a Chilean state-owned mining company, for capacity building and knowledge sharing in the field of mining, beneficiation, and exploration.

Furthermore, Copper’s price trajectory points to sustained strength, with forecasts anticipating a peak at USD 12,500 per metric tonne in Q2 2026 before settling at an annual average of approximately USD 12,075 per metric tonne, driven by persistent supply constraints and accelerating structural demand. Data centre expansion emerges as a potent upside catalyst, potentially fuelling around 475 thousand metric tonnes of copper consumption in installations for 2026, up roughly 110 thousand metric tonnes from the prior year, as hyperscale computing and AI workloads proliferate from an already modest base

NALCO: The company plans to expand its Pottangi Bauxite Mines with a capacity of 111 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), expected to commence operations in FY26. NALCO intends to increase its Alumina Refinery through the addition of a 5th stream with 1 MTPA capacity, scheduled for commissioning in FY26. A new Aluminium Smelter expansion targeting 0.5 MTPA capacity is planned, with commissioning anticipated in FY28-30. Additionally, NALCO aims to enhance its Captive Power Plant capacity to 1,200 MW, also targeted for FY28-30, to support the expanded smelting operations.

Moreover, Aluminium’s market outlook has transcended traditional cyclical patterns, propelled by profound structural transformations in the global economy, particularly the surge in electric vehicles (EVs) that consume up to twice as much aluminium as internal combustion engine vehicles for lightweighting and battery efficiency, alongside rising needs in renewables, 5G infrastructure, and AI-driven data centres. 

In India, consumption has expanded at a robust 9% CAGR over the past five years, with projections indicating a sustained 6.3-7.2% CAGR through 2030, fuelling domestic capacity expansions amid constrained global supply chains where inventories linger at multi-year lows and production curtailments. LME (London Metal Exchange) prices are forecasted to average around USD 2,670/mt in CY26.

Analyst Opinion: Valuation Perspectives on Hindustan Copper and NALCO

Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) trades at a trailing twelve-month (TTM) price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 93.5x, which appears elevated yet sits below historical highs of 95-105x in 2021 and 100-108x in 2024 during growth upswings. Traditional median P/E, price-to-book (P/B), or price-to-sales (P/S) metrics fall short for volatile miners like HCL, whose earnings hinge on copper price cycles.  Investors are advised to be vigilant as P/E compression looms on any LME pullback, eroding short-term gains. Investors should keep track of global supply shortages and raw material trends and accumulate selectively on dips while diversifying across the copper chain.

National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO) has a TTM P/S of 3.69x, at a similar range to 2024 highs. Its 10.89x P/E looks cheap on TTM and FY25 profits, but margins may not last as aluminium prices were high, which have inflated margins, casting doubt on earnings durability once LME cools. Investors are advised to await evidence of sustainable profitability, tracking key expansions and Aluminium prices. 

Company Profiles: Hindustan Copper and NALCO

Hindustan Copper: India’s only vertically integrated copper producer, and backbone of the nation’s mineral independence story. Established in 1967 as a 100% government enterprise and now a Miniratna Category-I CPSE with 66.14% government ownership, HCL remains the sole custodian of India’s copper mines, holding leases to every operating copper ore mine in the country and access to nearly 45% of national reserves. With about 755 million tonnes of copper resources and a major expansion underway to triple mining capacity from 4 to 12.2 MTPA in FY31, HCL is scaling operations to meet India’s electrification and manufacturing ambitions. 

National Aluminium Company Ltd: It is a Navratna CPSE under the Ministry of Mines, with the Government of India holding 51.28%. NALCO operates a fully integrated model, which includes Bauxite, Alumina, Aluminium, Power, and Coal. From captive bauxite mining and alumina refining to aluminium smelting, power generation, and port logistics, NALCO’s operations embody India’s industrial and energy synergy. It is the global leader in producing bauxite and alumina at the lowest cost. The company’s infrastructure includes a 7.5 MTPA bauxite mine, 2.1 MTPA alumina refinery (producing special hydrates, calcined alumina, and hydrate), a 0.46 MTPA aluminium smelter, and 1,200 MW of captive power generation capacity.

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