How Much Market Share Did IndiGo Lose After December Flight Disruptions?

Synopsis: Shares of InterGlobe Aviation Limited stayed in focus after IndiGo’s domestic market share fell sharply in December 2025. Operational disruptions and elevated cancellations led to a 4 percentage point MoM decline, with rival airlines gaining from diverted passenger traffic.

The Indian domestic air transport market experienced disruption-related volatility in December 2025, as widespread flight cancellations affected passenger traffic. While overall passenger traffic continued to grow, challenges in implementing operations at IndiGo led to reduced monthly traffic and a shift in market share towards rival carriers.

With the market cap of Rs 1,91,726 crore, the shares of Interglobe Aviation Ltd are trading at Rs 4,959 and are trading at a PE of 42.2, whereas its industry PE is at 19. The shares have given a return of 195% over the last 5 years. 

December Air traffic data 

The Indian domestic aviation market saw mixed trends in December 2025, with passenger traffic plummeting to 14.3 million, although the year saw a cumulative growth of 3.48% YoY to 166.9 million. The month was characterised by widespread operational irregularities, especially at IndiGo, resulting in increased cancellations, lower monthly traffic, and a subsequent shift in market share among the players.

According to the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) report, the market share of IndiGo contracted to 59.6% in December, down from 63.6% in November, indicating a loss of 4 percentage points in one month. This came at a time when IndiGo experienced high flight cancellations in early December, with the airline’s cancellation rate touching 9.65%, significantly higher than the overall average of 6.92%.

The passenger traffic share reveals that although IndiGo retained its lead, its loss directly benefited other players. Air India Group’s market share swelled to 29.6% from 26.7%, while Akasa Air’s share advanced to 5.2% from 4.7% in November.

Other carriers also marginally increased their market share. SpiceJet’s market share increased to 4.3% in December from 3.7% in November, while Alliance Air retained a consistent 0.4% market share. Smaller airlines benefited from spillover traffic as stranded customers booked flights on other carriers during the period of disruption.

Broader Impact and Industry Metrics

Aside from the loss of market share, the disruption also had a wider impact on the industry. More than 1.046 million passengers were impacted by cancellations in December, and the industry incurred more than Rs 24 crore in compensation and facilitation charges. Moreover, 29,212 passenger complaints were registered in the month, indicating increased customer dissatisfaction with the instability of operations.

On-time performance (OTP) metrics also highlighted the differences in the quality of implementation. The Air India Group topped the list with 66.3% OTP, followed by IndiGo with 62.7%, which was only marginally better than Alliance Air’s 62.1%. Akasa Air and SpiceJet trailed with 55.6% and 46.9% OTP, respectively, reiterating that reliability became a major differentiator in a disruption-filled month.

Although traffic in December was down 4.14% MoM, the overall trend was still structurally positive, with passenger traffic still growing on a yearly basis. Nevertheless, this incident has shown that, despite the competitive advantage of IndiGo’s size, the risk of execution is not completely mitigated, and that even a temporary disruption can quickly lead to a noticeable loss of market share.

IndiGo lost approximately 4 percentage points of domestic market share in December 2025, slipping from 63.6% to 59.6%, due to the cancellation of flights that forced the carrier to shift its customers to other airlines. Although the carrier is still the leading player in the market, this incident has shown that the sensitivity of market share to execution is extremely high in the competitive aviation market of India.

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