Oil, Rates, and Trade: 3 TSX Stocks That Could Come Out Ahead

When oil prices jump, rates stay tricky, and trade tensions keep investors guessing, the best stocks often have one thing in common: real-world demand. These stocks don’t need a perfect economy to work, but cash flow, hard assets, and a reason investors keep paying attention. So let’s look at a few on the TSX today.

JOY

Journey Energy (TSX:JOY) is the smallest name here, which makes it the riskiest but also the one with more room to move. The company produces oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Alberta, giving investors direct exposure to stronger commodity prices. Over the last year, Journey drew more attention as oil prices climbed and investors looked again at smaller Canadian energy names.

Recent news helped the case. Journey reported a record net asset value of about $1 billion, or $14.17 per fully diluted share, based on its year-end 2025 reserves. That looks strong next to its recent market cap of $442 million at the time of writing. So in short, investors looking for asset value may see a gap between what the market gives Journey and what its reserves suggest.

The earnings also look much better than they did a year earlier. Journey generated 2025 net income of $25.9 million and adjusted funds flow of $71 million. Sales volumes averaged 11,226 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), while annual revenue rose to about $171.7 million. The valuation sits around the mid-teens on earnings, so it doesn’t look wildly expensive. Still, this stock can move hard in both directions. If oil or gas prices fall, Journey could lose momentum quickly, so be sure to watch closely.

KEY

Keyera (TSX:KEY) offers a steadier way to play the same broad theme. It doesn’t simply depend on drilling more barrels, but owns and operates natural gas gathering and processing assets, liquids infrastructure, storage, and marketing businesses. That makes it a key piece of Western Canada’s energy system. When trade and energy security matter more, infrastructure like this tends to look more valuable.

Keyera also spent the last year expanding and integrating assets, including costs tied to its Plains acquisition. Its fee-based business remains the part investors like most because it supports steadier cash flow. In a market where rates can pressure highly valued stocks, Keyera’s role sits closer to toll-road energy infrastructure than boom-and-bust exploration.

The 2025 numbers show that strength, even if the year wasn’t flawless. Keyera reported net earnings of $432.3 million, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.1 billion, and distributable cash flow of $735.2 million. Still, Keyera stock trades around 26 times earnings at writing, so it isn’t cheap. But investors may accept that price for a monthly dividend, lower volatility, and exposure to Canadian energy movement.

DML

Denison Mines (TSX:DML) brings a different angle: uranium. If trade tensions push countries to focus more on energy security, uranium could move higher on the priority list. Denison focuses on the Athabasca Basin in Saskatchewan, one of the world’s top uranium regions. Its flagship Wheeler River project includes the Phoenix in-situ recovery uranium mine, which could become one of Canada’s most important new uranium projects.

Recent news gave Denison a major boost. In 2026, it received final regulatory approval and made the final investment decision to construct Phoenix. The company expects construction to take about two years, with first production targeted for mid-2028. The updated initial capital cost estimate sits near $600 million, so this is a serious development-stage story, not a quick flip.

The valuation reflects that optimism. Denison recently carried a market cap around $4.6 billion, even though it doesn’t yet have meaningful production revenue from Phoenix. That makes traditional valuation metrics less useful. Investors pay for future uranium supply, not today’s earnings. The upside could be significant if uranium demand stays strong and Phoenix stays on track. But the risks are just as clear: construction delays, cost overruns, uranium price swings, and financing pressure.

Bottom line

All together, Journey offers torque to oil prices, Keyera stock offers steadier energy infrastructure income and Denison offers uranium growth tied to energy security. None of these are risk-free, but each one fits a market shaped by oil and rates, and trade better than many flashier names.

The post Oil, Rates, and Trade: 3 TSX Stocks That Could Come Out Ahead appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada.

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More reading

• 3 TSX Stocks to Buy Before the Next Oil Spike Hits
• 2 TSX Stocks That Could Win Big From Oil Near $100
• Transform Your TFSA Into a Money-Making Machine With Just $15,000
• A Reliable TFSA Dividend Stock Yielding 4.1% With Consistent Payouts
• What TFSA Millionaires Understand That Most Canadian Investors Don’t

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Keyera. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.