Stock Target: JSW Infra Receives ‘Buy’ Call From Nuvama for Huge Upside Potential

Synopsis: JSW Infrastructure posted resilient Q4FY26 earnings despite geopolitical disruptions, supported by strong logistics growth, improving realizations and expansion momentum, prompting Nuvama to raise estimates and maintain a bullish outlook. 

The shares of this mid cap company majorly engaged in providing maritime-related services including, cargo handling, storage solutions, and logistics services were in focus after the brokerage sees 40 percent upside potential. 

With the market capitalization of Rs. 56,133 Crores, the shares of JSW infrastructure Ltd were trading at around Rs. 267 per share which is 23.5 percent discount from its 52-week high of Rs. 349 per share and is trading at a P/E of 35.3 where as industry P/E stands at 25.5 

Brokerage View

Nuvama Institutional Equities maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on JSW Infrastructure and increased the target price to Rs 400 from Rs 360, implying nearly 49 percent  upside from the current market price of Rs 267. The brokerage raised FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates by 2 percent  and 9 percent , respectively, citing stronger-than-expected Q4FY26 performance, robust logistics growth and sustained execution across port expansion projects. The stock currently trades at 22.9x FY27E EV/EBITDA and 15.8x FY28E EV/EBITDA.

Q4FY26 Performance Remains Strong Despite Headwinds

JSW Infrastructure reported Q4FY26 revenue of Rs 15,223 million, up 19 percent  YoY, while EBITDA increased 20 percent  YoY to Rs 7,692 million. Adjusted net profit rose 16 percent  YoY to Rs 5,097 million, while EBITDA margin improved to 50.5 percent  from 49.9 percent  a year ago.

Cargo handled during the quarter stood at 31.6 million tonnes compared to 31.2 million tonnes in Q4FY25. Growth remained subdued due to Middle-East conflict-led cargo deferments, vessel shortages and disruptions at Fujairah port.

However, realizations improved sharply to Rs 410 per mnt  from Rs 369 per mnt last year, aided by tariff hikes at Goa, Ennore and Mangalore terminals along with currency tailwinds.  

Logistics Segment Emerges as Major Growth Driver

The logistics business continued to outperform during the quarter with revenue surging 74 percent  YoY to Rs 2,278 million. Logistics EBITDA jumped 3.3x YoY to Rs 642 million, while EBITDA margin expanded sharply to 28.2 percent  from 11.4 percent  last year.

Domestic logistics volumes grew 40 percent  YoY in FY26, while EXIM volumes rose 21 percent  YoY. Capacity utilisation improved from 44 percent  in FY25 to 56 percent  in FY26 and further to 60 percent  during Q4FY26.

The recently acquired 25 rail rakes contributed around Rs 250 million EBITDA within just two months. Total rake fleet now stands at 42, while orders for another 40 rakes were placed in April 2026. Management aims to scale the fleet to nearly 250 rakes over the next two-to-three years. 

Expansion Projects and Capacity Addition on Track

The company continues to aggressively expand its port and logistics infrastructure. JNPA’s 4.5 million tonne liquid berth modernisation project has already been completed, while interim operations have commenced at the Kolkata Container Terminal project.

The 302-km iron ore slurry pipeline project is progressing steadily with nearly 82 percent  welding and 78 percent  pipeline lowering completed. Jatadhar port construction is also advancing well, with 80 percent  pile foundation work completed and commissioning targeted by March 2027.

Management expects cargo handling capacity to increase from 183 million tonnes currently to 300 million tonnes over FY26–28, while long-term target capacity stands at 400 million tonnes by FY30.  

Guidance Maintained Despite Geopolitical Challenges

Despite disruptions at Fujairah and weak global trade activity, management retained its FY27 and FY28 guidance. The company expects FY27 EBITDA to grow nearly 15% to Rs 30 billion, while FY28 EBITDA is projected to nearly double from FY26 levels to around Rs 50 billion.

JSW Infrastructure also plans cumulative capex of nearly Rs 165 billion across FY27 and FY28, including Rs 130 billion towards ports and Rs 35 billion for logistics expansion. 

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